So Paul the psychic octopus has predicted that Spain will beat the Netherlands on Sunday to win the world cup, and if he is correct he will continue his run of amazing accuracy of predictions having already correctly predicted all of Germanys results in this campaign. We wonder then, if Paul could give us an accurate forecast for the UK housing market.
There have been some puzzling discrepancies in the latest housing market forecasts and with Halifax, Nationwide and other indices reporting huge differences in average house prices and economists providing varying different predictions on where house prices are likely to go next – Up, Down or just remain fairly flat?
The other major problem with pricing predictions is the regional differences, which brings me on to the point of this blog – Any national index or statistics do not accurately reflect local markets, so whilst they may give us a national picture which is of some use, when the ‘normal person on the street’ wants to sell their property, the important question is ‘what is happening with house prices in my local area and how much is my house actually worth.
In terms of location, there are a number of factors that will mean that similar properties just a few miles apart have significantly different values and the two areas house price values may be heading in opposite directions. Factors such as the local economy, supply and demand, demographics, type of property stock or regional developments and major events. No doubt there are others too, which means if you are looking for a truly accurate picture, you need to speak to a local expert.
There are various web sites that will use historic data to give you area price guides and market overviews, but they won’t factor in things that haven’t happened yet, things that could have a significant impact.
So you could ask Paul the psychic octopus or use a number of other predictors, or you can speak to your local property experts.
(no comments about who is slimiest please)